Before 2015, Iran had a stockpile large enough to create eight to 10 bombs, as per US estimates. However, Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.
On 14 July 2015, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — China, France, Russia, UK and the US— as well as Germany, known as the P5+1 signed the JCPOA which placed major restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for relief sanctions. The European Union also took part. Israel, a regional arch-foe of Iran, opposed the agreement and said it was too lenient.
How the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) came into existence
The JCPOA was preceded by years of tension between Iran and the international community over the former’s alleged efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
The objective of the P5+1 was to scale back Iran’s nuclear programme, so that if it did decide to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year for it, giving world powers the time to respond. Meanwhile, Iran wanted relief from international sanctions which starved its economy of more than $100 billion in revenues in 2012–2014 alone.
The accord came into effect in January 2016.
In 2018, however, former US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the accord, having called it the worst deal ever, and put banking and oil sanctions back in place. India, under pressure from the Trump administration, stopped the import of oil from Iran.
A year after the US exited from the JCPOA, Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear programme. It resumed enrichment of uranium, restarted research and development on advanced centrifuges and expanded its stockpile of nuclear fuel.
However, the Biden administration is keen for the US to rejoin the JCPOA. During his confirmation hearing in January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said that the incoming administration intended to consult Israel and other regional allies about the Iran nuclear deal.
Key elements of 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)
The JCPOA has the following elements.
- Nuclear restrictions.
The nuclear restrictions on Iran included limiting the numbers and types of centrifuges Iran can operate, the level of its uranium enrichment and the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium.
- (b)Monitoring and verification
The UN atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is also a critical part of the deal. By signing the JCPOA, Iran allowed IAEA access to its nuclear facilities and undeclared sites to ensure that the country was not developing nuclear weapons in secret. The IAEA issues quarterly reports to its board and the UN Security Council on Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments.
- The ‘snapback’ mechanism & ‘sunset clauses’
The deal also includes a ‘snapback’ mechanism, which means that UN sanctions could be reimposed if Tehran was found to be in breach of the accord. However, this mechanism remains in effect for 10 years only (i.e. till 2026), after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently removed.
Like the snapback mechanism, the JCPOA also includes what are known as “sunset clauses”. For example, one clause states that after 2026, centrifuge restrictions on Iran will be lifted. Another of these clauses is that after 2031, limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium that Iran can possess will also be lifted.