PM Modi’s efforts to build peace with Pakistan after he came to power in 2014 were rebuffed by Pakistan with lip service one hand and terrorist attacks in Uri and Pulwama on the other. This resulted in surgical strikes across Uri and Balakot strike by the IAF. This was followed by most heated exchanges of firing across the LOC in the last few years.
Pakistan has made two dramatic announcements calling for peace recently.
Last month, there were coordinated statements by the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) on both sides that they had solemnly agreed to abide by the 2003 agreement on maintaining peace on the Line of Control. This was followed by a talk by Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa at a conclave called Islamabad Security Dialogue on18 March 21asking India and Pakistan should bury the past and make a new beginning by having a shared stake in peace so they can focus on their economies.
Militarily, diplomatically, politically or economically, achieving anything by force is out of the question. Besides the capability question, any such adventure would immediately run into global disapproval and force a ceasefire. Apparently initiative this is an outcome of back channel meetings between the two sides for several weeks, if not months, behind the scenes.
Some of the important highlights of the talk are as under:
- A commitment by Pakistan of non-interference in the internal affairs of any country in the neighbourhood or the region.
- He said progress in relations of course depends on India creating a ‘conducive environment’ on its side of Kashmir. There was no customary mention to remind66 India of the need to restore the pre-5 August 2019 status to Jammu and Kashmir forthwith, and prepare for self-determination as laid down in the UN Security Council Resolutions, which has been the normal rhetoric so far.
Given the past record of Pakistani peace moves, strong words of caution have come from Indian intelligence/strategic/military establishment.
While it may not yet be a cause of optimistic jubilation now, yet it must be given a cautious try. In negotiations to end the Cold War, Ronald Reagan had famously used a line with Mikhail Gorbachev: ‘Trust, but verify’. While dealing with Pakistan, we could turn it inside out: ‘Distrust, but verify’. What that means is, while you view every new move coming from Pakistan with the highest degree of suspicion, you check it out nevertheless.
Pakistan’s Dilemma
- Economically Pakistan is in a very precarious position now and it is becoming extremely difficult for Pakistan to keep borrowing from the IMF.
- Relationship of Pakistan with the Arabs is now on low ebb. The Saudi’s are no longer willing to fund Pakistan and its activities. In fact the Saudi’s are asking Pakistan to repay their loans. On the contrary, Saudi relationship with India are on the upswing and they are finding India an important investment destination.
- The FATF putting Pakistan on the grey list for past some years is like a Damocles sword and Pakistan has to give up its reliance on Jehadi elements to come out of it.
- Pakistan is no longer of strategic importance to USA since the end of Soviet Union and there after American involvement in Afghanistan coming to an end.
- Afghanistan peace talks will sooner or later bring in a new dispensation there, but the unsettled Durand line between Afghanistan and Pakistan will remain a source of friction and tension for some time to come.
- Pakistan’s relations with Iran are also fragile.
- Increasing internal upheaval in Baluchistan and Sind is a cause of worry for Pakistan.
- Even though China is a close friend of Pakistan but Chinese investments are all linked to financial benefit to China. Experiences of Sri Lanka in Humanbota Port and African countries are an example. Pakistan will in the long run be on perpetual debt to China and loose its sovereignty.
- India is growing economically and militarily stronger exponentially as compared to Pakistan.
Therefore the choice with Pakistan is to make peace with India, or continue fighting it and become a military protectorate and economic colony of China. Peace with India is a way ahead. However, it is still too early for India to take Pakistan on the face value. Therefore it will be prudent for India to be cautious and verify before trusting.