- Even though, COVID – 19 cases tested positive in India has increased at a high rate during the last week of March 2020, it is significantly lower than many other countries. In fact, next to Japan, India’s rate of spread of Corona is the least till 01 April 2020. As per a paper published in ‘The Lancet’, a reputed journal of Global Health, the number of persons affected by every Crona positive person is closer to 3, where as in India it is at 1.7 as on 26 March 2020.
- A comparison of the first 30 days of six different countries’ case count shows that India had slower growth rate than South Korea, Spain, Iran and Italy. The further spread will depend upon the effectiveness of India’s lock down period of 21 days.
- Deaths across the six countries show a relatively slower rate in India up to 29 March 2020. In two weeks after each country’s first reported death, India’s numbers grew from 1 to 4 to 17 from week one. In South Korea, it grew from 1 to 3 to 35. Spain grew from 1 to 48 to 598, whereas Iran grew from 2 to 22 to 92. In Italy it soared from 2 to 29 to 234.
- 4.Rate of Transmission. This is the rate of contagiousness of a disease or ‘Reproduction Number’ RO. Compare India’s rate of 1.78 to that of Italy which is between 2.76 to 3.25 as per the European Centre for Disease Control. When the RO is less than one, it means not every person tested positive transmits the virus to another person, the disease ceases to become an epidemic. Epidemiologists study the outbreaks by studying the exponential growths. Social distancing is by far the most effective tool known to man to flatten the curve. This also gives the health care workers to suitably look after the effected persons.
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