Back Ground
The sequence of events which spoiled the diplomatic relationship between US and Iran started from the pull-off of Trump, President of America from the Iran Nuclear deal earlier signed by the US during President Obama’s times. As Iran violently protested, America imposed strict economic sanctions on Iran, hitting hard on their Oil exports. To add fuel to fire, a series of events escalated the tension between US and Iran. The situation has further deteriorated to a direct face-off between both these nuclear capable countries, triggering a rift between Middle East and European countries, also spiraling religious tension between Islamic and Christian/Jewish nations.
Sequence of Events leading to further deterioration of relationship
The new trigger was the rocket attack on 27 December,2019 at an Iraqi military base near Kirkuk, killing an American contractor and wounding four Americans and two Iraqi servicemen by Katib Hezbollah, an Iranian backed militia. On 29 December, 2019 America retaliated with air strikes on sites in Iraq and Syria ,killing 24 members of an Iranian- backed militia, which represent a powerful faction of Iraq parliament.
On 31 December 2019, Pro-Iranian militia members marched on the US Embassy in Baghdad, effectively imprisoning US diplomats inside for more than 24 hours and burning the Embassy’s reception area. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for orchestrating the violent protest.
Direct Confrontation
In an act of decisive confrontation, US staged a drone attack and destroyed two cars carrying a top General of Iran Qassem Soleimani and top leaders of Iran backed militias, including Abu Mahdi al- Muhandis, Deputy Commander of the Popular Mobilisation Forces and the son- in- law of Gen Soleimani. as they were leaving the Baghdad International Airport.
General Soleimani is considered as the second most influential leader in Iran, next to Supreme  Religious Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Because of his position and the inflicted hurt to Iranian pride ,observers have predicted a possible all-out war again in the region, devastating the Middle East, devouring the peace and prosperity of all neighbouring countries , including India.
Gen Soleimani was in charge of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps( IRGC) , which the US designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in April last year. The Quds Forces undertake Iranian clandestine operations in other countries and US believe that the General was the mastermind of the recent attacks on Americans in Iraq. US Defence experts believe that Gen Soleimani is instrmental in creating an ‘arc of influence’ – which Iran terms its” Axis of Resistance” – extending from the Gulf of Oman through Iraq, Syria, and Lebnon to the Eastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
Ramifications in Middle East and India.
The shock waves created by the drone attack, killing the most powerful General of Iran Army is bound to make some ripples in the region. The first impact has already started showing. The oil prices have shot up and the Indian Rupee value got hit within hours. The strike has left the Middle East on edge , with possible repercussions beyond the region. President Rouhani said the killing would make Iran more decisive in resisting the US ,while the Revolutionary Guards said anti- US forces would exact revenge across the Muslim World. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a statement: ” His departure to God does not end his path or mission, but a forceful revenge awaits the criminals who have his blood and the blood of the other Martyrs last night on their hands”.
Israel has immediately come in support of US when other world nations watched cautiously. The US state department ordered US citizens to leave Iraq and Iran immediately. US is bracing to face retaliatory attacks, possibly including cyber attacks and terrorism on American and Israeli people and assets in the region.
Oil prices have already jumped by $3 a barrel. In India a high level meeting involving senior officials of Finance Ministry and Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, was held to assess the impact of a price rise and to review contingency measures.
Conclusion
As Washington and Tehran move from a proxy conflict to open confrontation, the entire Middle East is in danger of being consumed in this tussle. Though President Trump will certainly expect a huge bounce in the approval ratings that could help in his campaign to retain White House in the Presidential election later this year, he is recklessly involving America in a hopeless war where more American lives could be lost.
Ever since the Islamic revolution in Iran four decades ago, US and Iran have been daggers drawn. During these periods, Iran has successfully mobilised the support of China , Russia and has constructed a regional coalition with Turkey, Qater, and Syria against the US and its allies. Iran is capable of hitting the US assets in the middle east. This in turn, puts the entire Gulf region in jeopardy, since this region is the world’s largest supplier of hydrocarbons.
As a major importer of crude oil India is quite vulnerable to the deepening crisis next door. Diplomatic jugglery to keep Iran and Us humoured at the same time, is going to be a great challenge for New Delhi. The Iran crisis can further adversely affect our ailing economy.
Jai Hind.