Introduction
United States signed a peace deal with the Taliban at Doha, Qatar on 29 February 2020. The deal paved a way for a complete withdrawal of foreign soldiers from Afghanistan over the next 14 months in a phased manner.
The deal was signed by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a witness.
Besides the above, a separate joint declaration was also signed between the Afghan government and the US at Kabul, with a view to bring about peace in Afghanistan ending the 18 year long war.
The move is being widely seen as an effort by US President Donald Trump to demonstrate to American people that he has lived us to his electoral promise of bringing troops home and hopes to reap its benefit during the upcoming US presidential election in November 2020.
Background Information about the Conflict
United States launched air strikes in Afghanistan one month after the 11 September 2001 attacks in America, when the Taliban had refused to hand over the man behind them, Osama bin Laden.
The international coalition forces joined hands with the US to quickly remove the Taliban from power. However, the Taliban turned into an insurgent force and lost no opportunity to strike the coalition forces.
Besides, they continued to launch deadly attacks against pro-Afghan government institutions with the view to destabilize the democratic regime in power.
The coalition forces after losing nearly 3,500 lives since the 2001 invasion, decided to end its combat mission in 2014, staying only to train Afghan forces. But the US continued its own, scaled-back combat operation, including air strikes.
Meanwhile, the Taliban continued to gain momentum and in 2018 it was revealed by the BBC that they were a force to reckon with and were active across almost 70% of Afghanistan.
The hard-line Islamist groups within the Taliban refused to hold official talks with the Afghan government, whom they dismissed as American “puppets”.
Since the Taliban did not recognize the Afghan government, they expressed their desire to meet with US officials to try and find a “roadmap to peace” in December 2018.
The same was followed with nine rounds of US-Taliban talks in Qatar and finally the two sides found a way to sign the peace agreement.
The deal is being hailed as a fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire that will create an environment conducive for peaceful political processes to be ushered into Afghanistan.
In a February 2019 a UN report on casualties of the Afghan conflict stated that more than 32,000 civilians had died, along with 58,000 security personnel (including 2400 US soldiers) and 42,000 opposition combatants’ casualties.
Hence, it is high time that peace prevails in Afghanistan and the suffering of Afghan people sees a respite.
Highlights of the Deal
- US will reduce its forces in Afghanistan from 12000 to 8,600, with allies also drawing down their forces proportionately within the next 135 days.
- The US and its NATO allies have agreed to withdraw all its troops within 14 months provided the militants uphold their side of the deal.
- Prisoner’s swap of 5,000 Taliban prisoners and 1,000 Afghan security force prisoners commenced on 10th March.
- The US will also lift sanctions against the Taliban by 27th August and work with the UN to lift its separate sanctions against the group within the next three months.
- In return, the Taliban have agreed to not allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to operate in the areas they control.
Challenges to the Deal
The implementation of newly signed peace deal is fraught with numerous challenges, which are enumerated below:
- The inherent problem with the deal is that it excludes the Afghan government, primarily because the Taliban do not see the government as legitimate rulers.
- Moreover, there are no references in the deal regarding crucial aspects like abiding by constitutional norms, or rule of law, or even talk about ushering in democracy and elections.
- The Taliban have made no promises in the deal that they will not impose Shariat laws that had earlier led to shutting down of schools, except Islamic academies, banishing women from public lives and curtailing their civil liberties. There is also no mention in the deal that the Taliban will not unleash systemic discrimination on the basis of religious and ethnic minorities, etc.
- In the recently held re-elections in Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani (who is a Pashtun) faces a political crisis following claims of election fraud and his opponent Abdhullah Abdhullah (who is a Tajik) has set up a parallel government in Afghanistan.
- Taliban are predominantly Pashtun and hence the narrative being propagated by Mr Abdhullah is that the peace deal is an intra-Pashtun deal that has been reached at the cost of other ethnic groups, especially the Tajiks and Uzbeks.
- Hence, these ethnic fissures are bound to mar the execution of the peace deal, as the political rivalry may eventually lend way to the next round of civil war in Afghanistan.
- Furthermore, even the Taliban are fragmented internally, owing to regional and tribal affiliations. There are many turf wars being fought within the warlords for gaining power.
- The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan can witness the resurgence of militancy via hardcore militants of Taliban, who have got time and opportunity to restructure and reorganize. They are likely to challenge the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and plunge the country back into the dark era of civil unrest and militancy.
- There is also a possibility that the ANSF may disintegrate on ethnic lines and join the ranks of Pashtun predominant, Taliban.
- Therefore, with all these pulls and pushes in play, one is not sure as to for how long will this truce last.
Implications of the Peace Deal for Pakistan and China
Pakistan has played a pivotal role in brokering the deal between US and Taliban. Hence, the deal provides the strategic advantage to Pakistan, who is literally the creator and a long-time benefactor of the Taliban.
The declaration by the coalition forces in 2014 to annul combat operation in Afghanistan saw a systematic increase of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan.
The reason for the same is that a stable, pro-Pakistan regime in Afghanistan will help Pakistan economically in more than one ways.
A crucial portion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Gwadar Port lies in the insurgency affected Baluchistan province that has been violently demanding self-determination. The Baluch insurgency can be better tackled by Pakistan using the springboard of a pro-Pakistan regime in Afghanistan.
China has invested $60bn in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Consequently, in order to safeguard its economic interests in the region, especially in this economically glooming period owing to the spread of Corona virus, China may leverage Pakistan’s influence on the Taliban, to propel its strategic projects like the Belt and Road Initiative.
Implications of the Peace Deal for India
India has huge stakes in Afghanistan and has traditionally shared cordial relations with the Afghan government.
India’s Interests
- India has invested US $two billion in infrastructure development and reconstruction works in Afghanistan. Besides providing $650–750 million in humanitarian and economic aid, making it the largest provider of aid to Afghanistan.
- In 2011, the two countries signed a Strategic Partnership agreement, in which India agreed to assist in the training and equipping of Afghan security forces.
- Afghanistan is important for India’s energy security.
- India has vital economic interests in Afghanistan in terms of natural resources, i.e. iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium.
- Afghanistan is also endowed with natural gas and oil, which remains unexplored due to war and conflict.
Economic Implications
Indian investments in projects involving humanitarian assistance, major infrastructure development, small and community-development projects and education and capacity development will suffer if the Taliban assume power in Afghanistan.
India has launched a new trade route to landlocked Afghanistan by sea through Iran’s strategic Chabahar port (India committed up to $500 million for its development), a move that bypasses Pakistan and could have significant geopolitical ramifications in the region.
In 2016, New Delhi and Kabul also launched an air-freight corridor in an attempt to provide greater access for Afghan goods to the Indian market.
India received its first shipment from Afghanistan after taking over the operation of cargo facilities at the Chabahar port in Iran in December 2018, marking a new chapter for trade development in Central Asia.
However, the deal might dampen India’s interest in Central Asia through Afghanistan.
Military/ Geo-Political Implications
It is in the best interest of India to have a counter weight to Pakistan in the form of a friend in Afghanistan on the western border of Pakistan.
On the other hand, Pakistan is bound to try tooth and nail to curtail India’s influence in Afghanistan by creating a fear psychosis in the mind of Indian investors and work force engaged in developmental projects in Afghanistan.
Pakistani Taliban had also formed a new splinter group under Omar Khalid Khorasani, an ambitious Taliban commander with strong ties to al-Qaida called the Jamaat-e-Ahrar.
Therefore, footprints of Taliban in Pakistan are already firm and they are actively participating in terror related incidents in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Considering that the economic state of Pakistan is in complete doldrums and the country is fast moving towards becoming a ‘failed state’, Talibanization of Pakistan is well on the cards.
The loosely autonomous Federally Administrated Tribal Area (FATA) of Pakistan, which is highly underdeveloped with treacherously rugged mountainous terrain adjoining Afghanistan, is being envisaged as the nursery for future global terrorism.
All remnants of ISSI, Al Qaida and other hardcore terrorists to evade the western powers are likely to find refuge in this region.
It will definitely have an adverse spillover effect into India. Afghanistan could become “a staging ground for an Indo-Pakistani proxy war” for which India must guard against.
Conclusion
In the conclusion I would like to say that, polarization within India will only amount to playing into the hand of Pakistan, who will be better equipped than ever before to sponsor terror into India.
Hope better sense prevails and our government takes adequate measures to bind the nation together, only then will we be in a condition to fight united against this developing threat.