Brief Historical Background to Nepal Politics
The Kingdom of Nepal was founded on 25 September 1768 by Prithvi Narayan Shah, a Gorkha king of the Shah dynasty. The Kingdom of Nepal was de jure an absolute monarchy for most of its history. The Politics in Nepal works on the multi-party system under the republic. All the power is handled by the prime minister and cabinet formed by parliament. Nepal, with the population of around 30 million has more than 100 parties with different slogans and followers.
In 1990, under King Birendra, Nepal became a constitutional monarchy after a mass move movement from people forced Birendra Shah to restore democracy. On 1 June 2001, a number of members of the Shah dynasty were murdered in the royal palace. A High Commission report concluded that the royal family was slaughtered by Crown Prince Dipendra. Crown Prince Dipendra was the monarch under the law of Nepali royal succession. He served as the head of the Shah Dynasty. The monarchy was abolished on 28 May 2008 by the 1st Constituent Assembly after the people of Nepal rose against the unpopular Prince Dipendra.
Present Political set up in Nepal and causes of the rift
Nepal has three main political parties mainly recognised in the federal parliament.  Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Nepali Congress (NC), and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSPN). The NCP was formed in May 2018 by uniting the two major Left parties of Nepal — the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) led by Oli, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), led by Prachanda. It was decided then that the two leaders will serve as joint chairmen of the party under an electoral alliance. At the time, both Oli and Prachanda had agreed to a power-sharing deal under which both would be PM for a period of two-and-a-half years. But the deal never got ratified within the party, as Oli avoided taking it to the General Council.
This caused a rift between the main factions led by Prachanda and Oli. After the map row with India, he thought he had the majority support of his people and that he is now an all-powerful member of the party. But he failed to manage the party. Demand for Oli’s resignation began to gain momentum in July this year, even as the PM was busy garnering support from all political parties over a new political map of Nepal that claimed disputed areas of the Kalapani border region with India as its own.
In May, Chinese ambassador to Nepal intervened to resolve the matter, but it has not worked.
Nepal plunged into a political crisis on 20 December 20 after Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli dissolved the 275-member House of Representatives — the lower house of the country’s Parliament.
Constitutional Position
According to Article 85 (1) and Article 76 (7) of the Constitution of Nepal, the lower house, called the ‘Pratinidhi Sabha’, has a term of five years unless dissolved earlier. However, there is no provision in the Constitution that allows the Prime Minister, who is leading the two-thirds majority government, to dissolve it unilaterally. As a result, several opposition parties have taken to the streets to protest against PM Oli’s decision, the first dissolution in the democratic history of the country.
The matter is now pending before Nepal’s Supreme Court. If the court finds that Oli’s decision violated constitutional provisions, he will have to resign as prime minister. If not, the interim government will continue ill the next elections that have been scheduled in two phases on 30 April and 10 May
A split in the ruling party is now imminent.
Demand for restoration of Monarchy
Nepal has also been witnessing a spate of protests by those who support the monarchy, which was shown the door in 2001when the country became a federal republic. On 2 December, there were nationwide protests by pro-royalists, led by Rastriya Shakti Nepal (RSN) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), who sought the return of the monarchy to settle the current political crisis. It is anticipated that Oli might join the pro-monarchy forces with the creation of his own political party.
A series of high-level visits have 20 taken place from India to Nepal, starting with RAW chief Samant Kumar Goel in October. Army chief Gen. M.M. Naravane visited in November 20, followed by Foreign Secretary Shringla the same month.
Opposition stakes
The opposition Nepali Congress and the Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party have reasons to hope than an early poll will earn them a bigger space in Parliament.
The Army
The Nepal Army has made it clear that it will remain neutral in the ongoing political developments. This implies that if Oli tries to rule with the help of security forces to maintain law and order and contain protests, it is uncertain how far the Army will play along.
The China factor
China has been a big factor in Nepal’s internal politics since 2006. It is seen as having lobbied, visible or secret, to prevent the split. China has also invested in crucial sectors like trade and Investment, energy, tourism and post-earthquake reconstruction, and is Nepal’s biggest FDI contributor. It has increased its presence in Nepal because of a perception that India played a crucial role in the 2006 political change.