Elections were held in Myanmar in 2020 in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) swept the polls by winning almost 80% of the vote, while the Army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) suffered a humiliating defeat. The voters gave the NLD 396 seats, while the USDP ended up with just 33. This set the alarm bells ringing in the headquarters of Tatmadaw, as the Myanmar military is called. The USDP did not accept the result. The military backed the USDP made allegations of fraud, without offering any evidence.
Myanmar’s Union Election Commission dismissed the allegations and re-endorsed the results. On Monday, hours before the new Parliament was to convene, the Generals moved into action. They detained State Counsellor Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other top leaders of the NLD. They declared a state of emergency for a year, and took power in their hands. Myanmar, which started a fragile transition to democracy 10 years ago after decades of brutal military dictatorship, is back in the hands of the Generals.
Military’s Stake in Governance in Myanmar
The political climate in the junta-led Myanmar started changing around 2010. In 2008, the military had written a new Constitution that made sure the Generals’ interests would be protected even if there is a transition. Gen Than She, who had been ruling the country since 1992, shook up the power structure, promoted young soldiers who were loyal to him and conducted elections under the new Constitution, which ensured military presence in the Parliament and that popular leader Aang Suu Kyi is not allowed to be the president. The NLD, which had not recognised the Constitution, boycotted the 2010 election, which the USDP won. In the next five years, the Army loosened its grip on the government and society. Political prisoners, including Ms. Suu Kyi, were released. Media censorship was eased. U.S. President Barack Obama visited Myanmar in 2012, signalling a thaw in relations between Myanmar and the U.S. Ms. Suu Kyi’s party also changed its earlier position and accepted the Army-written Constitution. The NLD won the 2015 election, the country’s first free and fair election participated by multiple parties, and formed the government, raising hopes that the country is on its way to full transition to democracy.
According to the Constitution, the President must have military experience and the President himself, his spouse or children “shall not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country”. Ms. Suu Kyi, whose two sons are British citizens, cannot become President. The Constitution also mandates that the Defence and Interior Ministries would be controlled by the military. Also, 25% of the total seats in Parliament (166 out of the 664-member house) are reserved for the military, giving it a veto over any move to change the Constitution.
What does the Army want?
The timing of the coup is self-explanatory. It unfolded hours before the new Parliament was scheduled to convene. Had it happened, the results would have been constitutionally endorsed. Tensions have been rising between the NLD and the military ever since the November election. The 2015 and 2020 election results showed the growing popularity of Ms. Suu Kyi and the unpopularity of the military.
The Generals may have sensed that even the limited democratic experiment was gradually threatening the military’s entrenched interests with Suu Kyi remaining immensely popular. Ms. Suu Kyi had tried to buy peace with the Generals in her first term, especially on the Rohingya issue. She defended the Army crackdown on the Rohingya, which UN investigators said was executed with “genocidal intent”. But the Generals were still not pleased. The Army says it has declared an emergency for an year as the NLD government failed to act on its complaints on voter fraud. It has promised elections, without offering any time frame.
India’s Military – Diplomatic Outreach to Myanmar
The military junta is as subservient to China unlike in Pakistan, rather it has strained relations with China. Three years before, in April 2008, the Number Two man in the Myanmar army, Gen Maung Aye, was given a red carpet welcome to India, even before the military junta proposed a new Constitution, which gave 25 per cent of seats in Parliament to the military and which Myanmar continues to abide by even today.
New Delhi’s military-diplomatic outreach to Myanmar became a cornerstone of its Act East policy. On the eve of the joint Shringla-Dialogue in October last year, Gen Naravane visited Mayanmar. Myanmar handed over 22 Indian insurgents that had been making trouble from across the border. India has decided to ramp up the sale of military hardware to Myanmar, including 105 mm light artillery guns, rocket launchers, radars, mortars, naval gunboats and more recently, lightweight torpedoes.
The Modi government has been closely watching Beijing’s expansionist agenda, especially in the neighbourhood, which culminated eight months ago in the aggression in Ladakh. But New Delhi also realises that Suu Kyi can be a real partner — not just because she is the daughter of the much-loved General Aung San who fell to an assassin’s bullet, after which Suu Kyi and her mother spent many years in Delhi, but because she taps into a powerful pro-democracy vein back home.
Myanmar has also begun to vaccinate itself with the 1.5 million doses of Covid vaccine sent by India, while putting China’s 300,000 doses on hold.