What exactly happened in the Galwan Valley on Monday 15 June 2020?
Tensions had been running high in the area for the past few weeks, with a large number of soldiers and military equipment deployed along the LAC by both sides. Even though the LAC in Galwan Valley was never disputed by the two sides, the Chinese had moved into the Indian side of the LAC. After the meeting at the level of Corps Commanders on June 6, negotiations had been conducted between local military commanders of both the armies for a mutually agreed disengagement process.
As part of that process, a buffer zone had been agreed to be created between the LAC and the junction of the Shyok and Galwan rivers to avoid any faceoff between the two armies. The two armies were to move back by a kilometre each in that area as a first step.
When Colonel B Santosh Babu, who was monitoring this process, noticed that a Chinese camp was still existing in the area, he went to get it removed. This soon led to fisticuffs and blows being exchanged, resulting in deaths and injuries.
How serious is the situation?
This is the first time after the 1962 War that soldiers have died in clashes on the India-China border in Ladakh. Even otherwise, the last deaths on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) were an ambush of an Assam Rifles patrol in Arunachal Pradesh by the Chinese in 1975. But the last real military engagement between the two armies was at Nathu La in Sikkim in 1967, in which 88 Indian soldiers lost their lives, and more than 300 Chinese soldiers were killed.
But all these incidents were prior to the two countries signing, starting from 1993, various agreements for maintaining peace and tranquility on the border.
Moreover, at least 20 soldiers including a Commanding Officer lost their lives on a single day in Galwan on Monday.
How many Chinese soldiers were killed or injured in the clash?
The official statements put out by the Army and the Ministry of External Affairs have no details of any deaths or injuries to Chinese soldiers, although the first statement by the Army on Tuesday was amended to say that there were casualties “on both sides”. The Chinese government or the PLA too, have not provided any details of soldiers killed or injured in the clash. However, based on movement of stretchers and vehicles seen by satellites and also as per radio transmission intercepts, 43 Chinese soldiers including an officer were either killed or injured in the clash.
Were the Indian soldiers not carrying weapons?
No, this is as per the drill followed by both sides in the border areas to avoid inadvertent escalation by opening fire. This is in tune with the 1996 agreement between the two countries on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas, which imposed a lot of restrictions on military equipment, exercises, blasts, and aircraft in the vicinity of the LAC.
Can the situation escalate hereon?
As the two countries are still talking at military and diplomatic levels, any escalation into a major conflict looks improbable at this moment.
But conflict situations have a dynamic of their own, and events can overtake the best laid plans. A military conflict, if it occurs, can be localised to one area, can be along the whole border, or can be in any one sector. But unless there is another provocation and crisis, the two sides should be able to resolve the situation peacefully. However, armed forces remain on full alert, moving some of them forward for an early response in case of any eventuality. Simultaneously, the use diplomatic channels is in full swing to resolve the crisis.
What is the key takeaway?
There were hopes of an early disengagement and de-escalation after conciliatory statements from both countries in the past few days, after the meeting at the level of Corps Commander on June 6. There were meetings being held at the level of various other military commanders from June 10, which were to continue for 10 days, by when the disengagement process would have been decided and finalised. But after this incident, that process is likely to take a back seat, and an early resolution now looks unlikely. China has reasserted its claim over Galwan Valley, and its army has made sharp statements alleging that Indian soldiers twice crossed the LAC.
The MEA too, has categorically stated that the Chinese had violated the LAC in the Galwan Valley region, and the act of assault on Indian troops was a premeditated act. These allegations and counter-allegations, along with the heightened public sentiment on the deaths of so many soldiers, will test any process towards resolution.
Ground situation at the site of the clash.
A meeting at the level of Major Generals of both armies took place at PP14 in the area on Tuesday, which continued until late in the evening. It brought the situation under control, and the Indian side was able to collect all the bodies. The Chinese were given permission to bring in helicopters to ferry their injured back. However, the meeting remained inconclusive.
