The Western withdrawal from Afghanistan has gone hand in hand with a narrative of defeat, repeated so often it’s in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Five reasons stand out to explain why the West has failed in its mission:
- 1.The West’s best wasn’t good enough
The lives of 3500 international troops plus an estimated 200,000 Afghans has not been sufficient to turn the tide against a highly motivated Taliban. This was a strategic undertaking which required not only toppling of the Taliban but eradicating them from the grass roots. The effort and resources for the mission were not enough.
- 2.The plan was not sound
The West’s plan never anticipated the staying power of the Taliban. Instead, it changed with personalities – of ambassadors, commanders and politicians. Strikingly strategy was eclipsed by the operational art of the military. By doing so, the West became just another localised warlord, albeit a large and powerful one.
- 3.Misguided solutions
Not only did the West overestimate the value of its agency, but the bureaucratic powerhouse of NATO exacerbated this dynamic, supercharging the detachment, jargon and militarisation in its self-interest. The chosen metrics suited the mission until that mission no longer suited the politics of NATO and of its only real enabler, the US.
- 4.Hidden assistance to Taliban from Geographical neighbours
Not only did the Taliban prove to be a formidable and resourceful foe, but it has also received assistance from outside. Most of the neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Iran had reason to resent and ultimately reject the Western presence in Afghanistan. Iran and the ‘stans – Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan – initially wanted an end to instability and to maintain their own spheres of interest in Afghanistan; this changed as the West became mired in the struggle and the direction of US-Iran and US-Russia relations continued to sour.
- 5.Failure of development assistance
With a few exceptions, the metrics of aid was always mentioned as amount of expenditure rather than effectiveness of aid, fuelling vast corruption. The aid did not result in any substantive increase in jobs, especially outside Kabul and major big cities.
Between 2001 and 2019, two million men and women from other countries served Afghanistan, and more than $2 trillion was spent, an extraordinary, once-in-a-generation commitment of resources to a poor country. However most the money went back to West backed companies.
Afghanistan should find its own way
The West should not kid itself. The Taliban take over, their method of governance in Afghanistan is unlikely to differ from that of 20 years ago, nor their international links more benign. It is moreover not 1996, when the Taliban was welcomed by many as a stabilising force freeing the country from the violent and costly anarchy of the feuding mujahideen warlords.
Afghanistan will now have to find its own way, some of which may be uncomfortable to Western norms and sensitivities, from arming militia to cutting deals with tribal elders. Lots of powerful people have invested a lot of money in Afghanistan.