Introduction
In the Middle East, as of now, Iran is the newsmaker for all wrong reasons. Iran has been in the global arena for some times now, for reasons not very laudable. In 2018, US President Donald Trump unceremoniously walked out from the Iran Nuclear Treaty, the Treaty cemented by the former US President Obama along with other powerful western nations. The relationship between US and Iran , thus got strained. As the year 2019, neared culmination, it got further deteriorated and almost ended with an open conflict and possible war between US and Iran. The escalation of hostilities was followed by the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the second most powerful leader of Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. His motorcade was destroyed by a preplanned US drone attack while he was in Iraq. Though Iran retaliated by rocket attacks against US army camps in Iraq, good sense prevailed in both nations and the situation got retrieved from the verge of a war, which could have otherwise, plunged the whole Middle East region into a war zone.
Parliamentary Elections-2020
As the 290 seat Parliamentary election concluded in Iran, as expected, the conservatives and hardliners captured control of the parliament. The political assassination of Gen Soleimani added fuel to the hatred campaign against US, tilting the election results entirely, leading to the victory of hardliners who were affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).Once again, IRGC asserted absolute power in Iran, covering vast segments of Iranian politics, Economy and foreign policy. Though the Supreme Leader , Ayatollah Khamenei ,as the Commander- in- Chief of Iranian Army , continues to have a synergistic relationship with the IRGC, the Guards seem to play a more active role in the political decision making of Iran, similar to the role of ISI ,being the deep state of Pakistan. IRGC, through the powerful Guardian Council, managed to influence the election process by disqualifying approximately 9000 potential candidates, who are political rivals, mostly reformists and moderates, on flimsy grounds and ensured victory of its puppet candidates. President Rouhani has fallen out of grace ,since his presidency was supported by a group which wanted to open good relations with the West. Now, as the present President Rouhani looks helpless, the newly reshaped Iranian Parliament will take a much firmer stance against the US and its allies in Europe and in the Region. Iran is passing through an economic crisis created by tough US sanctions and political turmoil in the Middle East. The new hard-line lawmakers will start their job as MPs in an Islamic Republic, which suffers from fracturing pillars of legitimacy.
Iran was in turmoil in 2019 November, which saw huge processions of protesters expressing their discontent against the Khamenei government policies, of 200 %Â increase in fuel prices and spiraling food prices. The Government brutally cracked down on the protesters killing about 1000 Iranians and arresting thousands of them. Around 58 million Iranians were eligible to vote in the recent Parliament elections with 9 million voters in the capital city of Tehran itself. However, the official turnout was only 42.5 % which is the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. This is a clear indication of the people’s disenchantment with the process of elections in Iran. It’s interesting to note that the turnout in the 2016 general election, dominated by reformers who supported President Rouhani and the Nuclear deal of 2015, was almost 62%.
Ayatollah Khamenei blamed the ‘low turnouts’ of voters on the “negative propaganda” about the outbreak of “Coronavirus” in Iran. As a matter of fact, Coronavirus (COVID 19), virus has slowly risen its head in Iran. It’s a matter of concern that Iran’s Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi is infected with Coronavirus and he was seen coughing badly and wiping sweat from eyebrows in a public appearance. Later, he publically admitted that he was infected by the deadly virus.
Possible Fall Out Of Elections
Considering that President Rouhani and his team failed to stop the Economy from its downfall and find solutions to withstand the harsh US sanctions which included, discouraging world nations to buy crude oil from Iran, the new Parliament will devise new strategies to cope up with the national crisis.
India, who is a major importer of Iranian crude oil, also is feeling the heat from America for reducing the purchase of Iranian oil. Iran, as a retaliatory action has declared that it will review its nuclear weapon programme and threatened the Nuclear Peace Treaty signatory nations to put pressure on America. India has ,so far managed a diplomatic tight rope walk between US and Iran, though it’s a difficult task.
The new Policy makers of Iran will focus on regional markets for the survival of Iran. For example, Iraq, which is the second largest export market and depends Iran for most of its national resources- from food , machinery, and electricity to natural gas. IRGC has a major stake in the geo- political scenario of Iraq. The key ingredient here, has been the “Quds Force”, the external operations wing of the IRGC, which was led by Gen Soleimani.
Conclusion
Iran, today is the hotbed of back- stabbing factions, religious fanaticism and political violence.
President Rouhani is in no position to ratify any key legislation during his last year in office. The hardliners, having captured power in Iran, will not allow President Rouhani and team to renegotiate the 2015 Nuclear settlement from which the US President Donald Trump walked away in 2018.
It is widely predicted that the consolidation of power by Iranian hard- liners will open a new chapter of illiberalism, and state violence in Iranian politics. This belligerent stand of Iran will eliminate the remaining grains of trust between the Iranian Citizens and the Islamic regime. To add fuel to fire, this US hatred will also close the door for any diplomatic exercise and engagement for peace in the Middle East between Tehran and the West.